E-books and print living in harmony 

Print book sales for General Trade for the Christmas 2014 season had booksellers worldwide rejoicing, with headlines like “Print is back” and “Death of books greatly exaggerated” leaving physical bookstore owners in a frenzy of delight such as they haven’t known since 2009. Foyles, the UK bookselling chain, said physical book sales had risen 8% over Christmas while Waterstones revealed a 5% increase in December. But closer inspection reveals a more complex interpretation of the surge in sales of print books. Nicolene Finlayson zoomed in for some details.

In its 2011 report, Turning the Page: The Future of Books , PwC predicted that e-book sales would overtake printed book sales by volume (in the UK) in 2015. Looking back, this was a reasonable conclusion to make – bookshops all around were collapsing and e-readers featured high on Christmas wishlists. Indeed, with one-click buying, cheaper price points, and the convenience of accessing e-books, it would seem like a safe bet to predict the decline of the print title. But book buying of the printed variety seems to be thriving – sales of print books continued steadily in 2014, and if current sales statistics are anything to go by, looks set to dominate total book sales in 2015. In the 2015 edition of Deloitte’s predictions for the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) sectors, it predicts that print will represent more than 80% of all book sales worldwide in 2015 and will generate the majority of book sales “for the foreseeable future”. “E-books have not substituted print books in the same way that sales of CDs, print newspapers and magazines have declined,” said Deloitte’s media lead partner Clare Harding. What could be the underlying reasons for this surreal state of affairs, so at odds with predictions of just a few years ago? 

Form following function

In a recent article in the Australian Business Spectator, Victoria Thieberger wrote: “The flexibility and accessibility offered by the e-book has helped to expand the market, rather than signal the demise of the printed book. Just as the rise of the mass-market paperback in the 1940s expanded the reading market without killing off hardbacks, the rise of the e-book may have expanded the market, without signalling the end of the printed work.” Instead, new technology and digital editions have created a whole new audience and expanded the market with lower price points. Publishers and booksellers are realising that e-books do have a role to play in expanding the book-buying market, and that realization has forced many to really focus on what their print books want to achieve. Thus, unlike the rocky road to eventual demise followed by CD, print newspapers and magazines, when it comes to books, form follows function, and print books have their own functions. Books as gifts, books as beautiful objects, books as identity establishing items (think of books spread out on a coffee table versus books stacked next to one’s bed) are a few of the functions that come to mind. Deloitte’s retail analyst Paul Lee concurs: “For some people, it’s like showing a perception of themselves like a brand they wear.” In other words, people like to show off their books on their bookshelves or on their coffee tables.

We agree with Scott Pack, a publisher at HarperCollins, who recently told UK newspaper The Independant , “I believe the reader of 2020 or 2030 will have two libraries, print and digital, with different types of books and publications in each.

While I have no qualms about trying out a debut author on e-book or loading up some holiday reading on to my Kindle, when it comes to my favourite authors I have to own the print edition, and I remain a sucker for a beautifully designed and printed book.”

Different cycles

In her report on Digital Book World 2015 for The Bookseller, Gayle Feldman outlines some of the interesting observations made by Nielsen’s Jonathan Nowell on The Changing mix of what sells in print: How e-books have changed the print book marketplace. Nowell broke down how both the e-book and print book markets were doing on both sides of the Atlantic. One of his observations was the differing sales cycles for e-books and print books. According to Nowell, there isn’t (yet) enough data in Nielsen’s charts to be categorically certain of this, but it looks as though e-book sales have their own cycle. Sales of print books tend to peak in the last quarter of the year as consumers buy books as Christmas presents, whereas sales of e-books seem to peak in the first two quarters of the year, presumably as consumers load up on content to enjoy on the tablet, smartphone or e-reader that they received as a Christmas present. These cycles have important implications for how commentators view the book market. Until now, the tradition has been to monitor the health of the book market in January following Christmas sales. From this data, however, it could be more meaningful to measure the fortunes of the e-book market in the middle of the calendar year. This would allow data gatherers and industry watchers to compare two peak quarters more easily, and avoid direct (and possibly unfair) comparison between physical and digital book sales in the final quarter of the year.

A better understanding of what sells better than ever before is key

The Bookseller’s editor Philip Jones recently commented that booksellers are becoming much more sensible about what they put on their shelves. “Obviously if you can’t sell 20,000 copies of a commercial fiction title, you need to put something else out there, so we’re seeing all over that areas of the market such as graphic novels are getting more shelf space, as booksellers learn what readers want to buy in print. I think that in the future, we may see even more neglected areas of the market came more into the centre.” He continued to say that publishing is better than what it was – informed by a closer understanding of what works in each channel—or as PRH UK boss Tom Weldon said last week, “greater visibility into what influences readers”—a rekindled relationship with booksellers and a more flexible approach to authors. 

Genre is where the real sales are

Nielsen’s data also showed that in order to see where digital sales could be cannibalising print sales, you might be well advised to look at the genre markets. In the so-called post e-book environment, genre print sales have fallen, precipitously in some cases. Nielsen’s data suggests that the truth of this statement depends on which genre you’re looking at. Romance now enjoys nearly a quarter (24%) of e-book sales by volume, compared to 19% in 2010. Other popular genres, including mystery, thrillers, suspense and fantasy were all down in terms of market share on 2010. Digital-only imprints have become popular for genre fiction such as sci-fi, crime and romance – and for selfpublished authors, some of whom charge as little as nothing for their work.

As Feldman noted, despite dire prognostications made in years past (many, indeed, at DBW), Nowell asserted that the hardback “has held up remarkably well.” And, if we are to take away one thing from this investigation, it would be to rejoice – more is more!

For more ways to read does equal more readers.

• What Nielsen Bookscan data tells us about ebook sales cycles & the ebook plateau, www.publishingtechnology.com

• Why are we still buying print? publishing.artshub.com.au 

• Sales of printed books fall by more than £150m in five years, www.theguardian.com

• Surprise, surprise, www.thebookseller.com

• Long live the ebook – it’s a champion of the printed word, www.theguardian.com

• Analysis: The story behind the resurgence of physical book and record sales, www.retail-week.com