Five points to ponder as we settle into 2014

For the past few years, we’ve been watching the book industry nervously taking uncertain steps toward the future, with everything known and stable becoming both unknown and unstable. But it would seem that we have reached an exciting turning point – as George Lossius, CEO at Publishing Technology observed in his Trends piece on Publishingperspectives.com, in 2013 something altered: it seemed that across the industry publishers looked around, realized they hadn’t toppled sideways into oblivion, and began a new chapter. For Lossius, 2013 was characterized by a new optimism within the industry, excitement replacing anxiety surrounding new technology and business models and a real enthusiasm to steer publishing [and the book industry in general] into new territory. Looking ahead then at 2014, we identified the top 5 themes/areas where exciting changes will be taking place in South Africa.

1. Mobile
Developers and service providers are leading the way by building bridges across the ‘digital divide’ – bringing essential services via unique and user friendly applications to an increasingly connected mobile market, with considerably smarter, faster and, perhaps most importantly, more affordable devices. WAPA (Wireless Access Providers’ Association of South Africa) predicts an ever-increasing penetration of smartphones as, on the supply side, mobile carriers are encouraging uptake and consumption of mobile data by subsidizing or leasing smartphones with contracts. According to a press release from WAPA, consumers will predominantly use smartphones for social media, mapping, web browsing and communications, but will start taking advantage of the new ‘mobile-first’ functionality delivered by the private and public sectors. HarperCollins’ chief executive Charlie Redmayne commented in an article predicting trends for 2014 on TheBookseller.com in January, “[There will be] a continued move towards tablet and smartphone reading, and publishers beginning to create multimedia content for all devices.” There will also be a definite shift towards the proliferation of direct-to-mobile or -tablet publishing. Local e-learning developers will also focus more on apps as an effective way to deliver content to learners and students. According to UNICEF, South Africa houses the third-largest number of mobile subscribers on the continent, with around 20% of the population owning a smartphone. Smartphone growth in Africa has increased by 43% annually since 2000, and experts predict that 69% of mobiles in Africa will have internet access by 2014. 


2. Retail
Lossius wrote in his piece “5 Trends for Trade Publishing in 2014” that in 2014 the shortcomings of e-tailing (having to purchase a whole book without browsing or dipping into it like consumers can do in bookshops) will become less apparent as providing sample chapters, or purchasing a book in sections will satisfy consumer’s need to “try before you buy”.
He goes on to predict that in addition to the repackaging of content, we will also see bundling on the increase.
Purchases of a hardback might provide a free e-book version, or a front list title might be accompanied by a discounted backlist title. Combined with offers like receiving the first e-book chapter for free, these kinds of initiatives should see the reboot of the e-book market, which was fairly stagnant in 2013.
Dave Nemeth writes in his trend-piece for Bizcommunity.com, that “with consumers searching for shopping experiences and not merely driven by products and pricing, the face of retail is about to change drastically over the next few years”. He highlights show-rooming, which is set to change the entire dynamic of retailing, as stores will eventually be able to carry a lot less inventory, and individualised products
(think print on demand). “Destination marketing” will play an increasingly bigger role, as confirmed by Exclusive Books’ new owners, who want its 45 stores to become more of a destination rather than just another place to shop. New CEO Benjamin Trisk has a few plans up his sleeve to accomplish this as detailed on page>>>>

3. Data
“Data will continue to go more mainstream in the book world, impacting every aspect of the book publishing process,” said Source-books CEO Dominique Raccah, quoted on Digitalbookworld.com by Jeremy Greenfield in a Predictions piece. “And data insights will push change onto all parts of the book publishing supply chain.” Many larger publishers have formed fairly complex data departments and are now moving to integrate data-driven insights into daily operations. “We’re going to see a much bigger move toward data-driven decision making in publishing,” said Dana Beth Weinberg, a professor of sociology at Queens College in New York who is studying authors and the publishing industry. “A lot of the houses are starting to look at what information they have on hand and to try to figure out how to leverage it. They will start looking at new and existing authors and make decisions about where to put their marketing dollars. They’re going to be looking for new data if they don’t already have it.”

4. Content
The way we consume content has changed dramatically – shorter attention spans, less “deep reading” and generally more information and less time – has led to the prolific trend of shorter form content, with publishers ready to capitalise on the trend and look into looking at repackaging content into smaller chunks. We will see more serialised works, and more “pay-per-read” or “pay-per-chapter” models.

5. Free for all?
One big trend we’re seeing rise above almost all others is ethical business: good business, green business, sustainable business, socially-vested business. Open Access will remain a big topic throughout 2014. Publishers, booksellers and other important players in the book-industry will re-evaluate their businesses, and will have to think long and hard about this one.

“This is the year where businesses will put into place the systems, methods and models that will define the next decade of readers, and I believe there is a good chance it will define the people who will lead that charge. The real question is then, who will step up, who will steam ahead, and who will be left behind.” (George Lossius, CEO of Publishing Technology)

Sources:

• Nine places to look in 2014 to predict the future of publishing, Mike Shatzkin
• Ten Bold Predictions for E-books and Digital Publishing in 2014, Jeremy Greenfield
• Future unwritten, Philip Jones
• Eric Schmidt’s 2014 predictions: big genomics and smartphones everywhere. Charles Arthur
• 5 Trends for Trade Publishing in 2014 | George Lossius, CEO at Publishing Technology
• Africa’s future is mobile, Ayanda Dlamini
• The face of retail is about to change, Dave Nemeth
• Business trends for online retailers, Gary Hadfield